New Rankings 11-24-09

New rankings have been calculated! Interesting to see Texas jump to the top but that is what happens when Florida and Alabama take the week off. Interesting that LSU drops out of the rankings losing to Ole Miss. I guess their schedule is catching up to them and wins over bad teams do not help. I have to say that the AP poll is very similar which is indicates some memory of past games. It will be interesting to see if we have anymore upsets and what that will do. Have a great Thanksgiving weekend and thank you for reading the blog. Try to catch a game or two over the weekend.

Game of the Week - Week 13

Rivalry Week! 4th and 10 will be watching as much football as possible (outside of turkey induced comas) this weekend. Good luck to the Ags.

tu at A&M

Alabama at Auburn - Iron Bowl
Clemson at South Carolina - Battle of the Palmetto State (ugg)
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma - Bedlam
Ole Miss at Mississippi State - Egg Bowl
Kansas at Missouri - Border War
Arkansas at LSU - The Battle for the Golden Boot
Georgia at Georgia Tech - Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate (yes!!)
Washington State at Washington - Apple Cup!
Grambling at Southern - Bayou Classic (no one watches the game just the bands)
Rice at Houston - Bayou Bucket
Utah at BYU - Holy War

Random Musings

A great weekend of college football. I had to put a couple of things down that I will be wasting lunch times talking about.

• Arizona fans streaming out of the stands before having to watch Oregon rally and win in overtime.
• Texas Tech fans and players jumping up and down while the stadium played the song Oklahoma played during last years rout. This was great to see and shows that the Big12 is becoming a nasty place to play.
• LSU spiking the ball to run out the clock.
• Charlie Weis crying on the sideline and Notre Dame's bowl chances slipping away.
• Do they still play football at Michigan? Maybe the Wolverines need a government bailout.
• Jacory Harris arm sling joke on the media.
• Can we stop with the alternate uniforms? Yuck. Save us from Nike, please.
• What's the deal with Mangino and parking tickets? Poking a player? Where is Woody Hayes?
• Nevada rocking the rushing game with 3 1,000 yarders. Gotta see them against Boise State. Who says you can't win without the spread.
• The constant chatter about Belichick going for it on fourth down. Last weeks media darling Harbaugh goes for it and we get to hear about it all over again. Teams should never punt. More teams lose punting than lose going for it and you will see a college team start using all four downs soon.
• A playoff system sure would be nice. The BCS must love putting together crappy games.

Heisman Race

I am wondering if any of my Heisman candidates will be invited to the ceremony.

1. Case Keenum - UH - Leading the nation in total offense, passing yards, passing yards per game, 5th in passing efficiency, and is leaving Colt and Tebow in the dust. It is simply stupefying that this guy is not getting more press.  
2. Toby Gerhart - Stanford - 3rd in the nation in rushing yards and continues to put up amazing numbers against the toughest competition. 23 TDs including 4 against Cal, 3 against USC, 3 against Oregon, and 2 against Oregon States. He gets the Irish next and then a bowl and the NFL. 
3. Jordan Shipley - Texas - This guy will rock i the league. Texas is coasting until the big12 title game. 
4. CJ Spiller - Clemson - Continues to be overlooked but has Clemson on track for the ACC title game. Over 2000 yards of combined yards doing everything from running and catching to passing and returning the rock. 

LSU vs. Mississippi

Wow! Bonehead move of the week. The state of Louisiana has never been known for intellect but the Tiger performance with 1 second remaining was baffling. LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson inexplicably tried to spike the ball with a second left in the game leaving the team with no time to try a field goal. Granted, LSU would have had difficulty trying to rush the field goal team on in time but to not have a play call or the special teams ready showed why college coaches are recruiters and not tacticians. The crazy end to the game overshadowed a great performance by Dexter McCluster. I have always questioned Houston Nutt and how he lost with two NFL running backs. How he forgets to give this guy the ball is simply amazing. This game was hard fought with players stepping up to make big plays. Ole Miss piled up the yards but LSU found a way to keep them out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. McCluster was unstoppable with nearly 200 yards of offense. LSU's defense wore out as the game progressed. Jefferson was able to rally and was impressive passing the ball but the lack of a running game and poor decisions doomed the Bengal ballerinas.

A question arises regarding the how good either of these teams are. I give the benefit of the doubt to the SEC but neither of these teams have rung up an impressive resume of wins. Maybe Herbie is on to something regarding the Pac10. LSU will struggle against teams with a stout defense while Ole Miss is either going to blow the team out or lose in a shootout. Currently, CBSsports has LSU facing off against Okie State and the Rebels going against Penn State. I think they can win both of those games but we still have a few weeks to see how things play out.

Game of the Week - Week 12

LSU at Ole Miss. An exciting game that features excellent teams fighting for bowl positioning. LSU has had a surprising season and a better quarterback would have made a difference in their losses to undefeated Florida and undefeated Alabama. Ole Miss was the chic pick to start the season but for some reason coach Nutt forgot that Dexter McCluster plays on the team. The key to the game will be how the Tiger defense handles Dexter McCluster. The amazing sophomore has been absent at times this season but has recently strung together some impressive games as the Rebels have seemed to right the ship. LSU has had some exciting games but have a real problem at quarterback that has paralyzed the offense. This is a rivalry game so the atmosphere will be electric as the Rebs try to make it two in a row over the power of the SEC west.

Bill Belichick vs. 31 Other Coaches*

It's certain that you have seen by now the Bill Belichick decision to go for it on 4th down last Sunday. It's almost a given that you have heard how terrible, foolish, etc. it was for him to not trust his defense. The real question for me, "Is did Belichick improve his chance of winning the game?" I know this will be hard for many of you to believe, but the answer is YES! By going for it in that situation, Belichick increased his chance of winning from 70% to 79%.

HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT!!!

Well, it's not me, but statistics from hundreds of NFL games using expected outcomes of any given situation. If you haven't seen the website that analyzes this type of situation for many games, it is called Advanced NFL Stats. Here is the link to the analysis that shows Belichick was right. AND, there was fallout from the initial analysis claiming that it was faulty, so here is the link to the rebuttal column that was posted later.

So, why the dustup for Belichick over this? That is pretty simple. It just proves that the majority of coaches (31 out of 32) in the NFL are optimizing a different variable than chance of winning. It is my opinion that coaches are minimizing the "media exposure/fan outcry" variable rather maximizing the chance at winning. Belichick may not have known the exact numbers produced by the Advanced NFL Stats, but he knew for certain that making the 1st down seals the game.

The real question is how do fans allow themselves to fall victim to supporting strategies that work against the team's chance of success? For one, the coaches have put up a smoke screen that allows them to shift the blame/risk from himself to the players/defense. Really, I think it is simply that the coaches (and fans) don't know the optimum strategies, or the coaches refuse to take the heat for a winning strategy (by statistical analysis) that fails in a given instance. You will find VERY similar arguments in baseball when discussing the "manufacture" of runs. In that case, bunting, stealing bases, and other small ball, work against the team that implements those strategies. However, that idea is accepted as sound strategy by almost everyone in the game.

So, here's to Belichick. It takes guts to make the right decision, and he continues to lead in that category. One other thing, what do you think the media would have said in these two situations?

1. Pats make the 1st down and win the game against the Colts.
2. Pats punt and Manning drives the Colts 65 yards for the win.

Let us know what you think the buzz would have been with those outcomes.

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*This article is cross-posted at Arkansas 7-on-7 Football.